Breaking news- "Sinking Titanic" tops SADC summit agenda

Trade and peacekeeping also are on the agenda, but Southern African leaders meeting this week are likely to be preoccupied with the economic and political crises in Zimbabwe that are sending thousands of refugees into neighbouring South Africa, Botswana and Zambia.

Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa once likened the situation in Zimbabwe to a "sinking Titanic". To many observers, the comment signalled a willingness to put aside the deference that many regional leaders have shown Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe.

But as Mwanawasa prepares to host Mugabe and other regional leaders on Thursday and Friday for a Southern African Development Community (SADC) summit, the Zambian government appears to be toeing a more cautious line.

Zambia is taking over the rotating SADC leadership at the summit, where leaders also will discuss the creation of a free trade zone and a regional military standby force of peacekeepers. The 14 SADC members are Angola, Botswana, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe.

Zimbabwe is "a very dicey situation", Mike Mulongoti, Zambia's Minister of Information and Broadcasting, said on Tuesday. "Zambia cannot impose its will on Zimbabwe, just as Zimbabwe cannot impose its will on Zambia. But we can quietly whisper to each other our concerns."

Mugabe's neighbours have long been reluctant to criticise one of their own openly. South African President Thabo Mbeki, a powerful voice on the continent who has long argued quiet diplomacy would be more effective than public criticism of Mugabe, is due to report at the summit in Zambia on his efforts to mediate between Mugabe and Zimbabwean opposition leaders.

In power
Mugabe, in power since independence in 1980, has capitalised on his anti-colonialist credentials to rally support among ordinary Africans with rhetoric accusing the West of looking for an excuse to take over Africa again. Among the Southern African leaders who oversaw the liberation of their countries from colonial rule, Mugabe is the only one still in power.

"Zimbabwe is not a small country like Lesotho that can be bulldozed by its neighbours," notes Fred Mutesa, a development studies professor at the University of Zambia. "The leader is an old hand, he's eloquent and articulate, and many people fear to cross his path."

Many in the region are concerned about the destabilising effects of Mugabe's policies, including often-violent seizures of thousands of white-owned farms he ordered beginning in 2000, leading some white farmers to move to Zambia.

But there's also sympathy for Mugabe's argument that he has been unfairly demonised and strangled by Western sanctions. The United States and European Union have slapped asset freezes and a travel ban on Mugabe and his top associates, but Mugabe often portrays the sanctions as being much broader and targeting his whole economy.

On Tuesday, Human Rights Watch said: "The political and human rights crisis in Zimbabwe, which threatens to destabilise the whole region, is crying out for urgent and effective leadership." The group said Southern African leaders should dispatch human rights monitors as an "essential first step in protecting Zimbabweans from state brutality".

In a June opinion piece for BBC World Magazine, Kenneth Kaunda, Zambia's first president, said that while he opposed recent violence against Zimbabwe's political opposition, "this demonising is made by people who may not understand what Robert Gabriel Mugabe and his fellow freedom fighters have gone through".

Solidarity
At a media briefing last week, SADC executive secretary Tomas Salomao allowed that there is "room to improve management of the exchange rate" in Zimbabwe, which is currently experiencing food, energy and fuel shortages amid inflation that has spiralled up to 4 500%, according to official estimates.

But he also stressed that SADC members are committed to helping Zimbabwe overcome its challenges "in solidarity".

Sakwiba Sikota, an opposition member of Zambia's Parliament who represents the town of Livingstone, says that Zambian President Mwanawasa "has a big responsibility" to put pressure on Mugabe. Livingstone lies next to the famed Victoria Falls, just across the river from Zimbabwe, and has struggled to cope with a recent surge in Zimbabweans crossing the border.

"All this talk of 'We shouldn't interfere in neighbouring countries' policies' is a concept that should be thrown out the window," Sikota said. "With 'sinking Titanic', he [Mwanawasa] was on the right path." -- Sapa-AP